September 20th, 2002
Dear Senator,
I’m writing to you to discuss oil. Last Wednesday’s Oregonian newspaper had a news analysis of the world geopolitical oil situation. From this, I learned (confirmed) that our country consumes a fourth of all the oil currently produced in the world. This is old news, but it got me curious about how long the oil is going to last in the world - it is a finite resource. At the bottom of the article was a little box with the world’s major oil-producing country’s names, their proven reserves, and the current production rate. As an exercise, I did some calculations to see how long various countries could continue to produce at the current rate of production. Not surprisingly, the U.S. is going to run out first, in ONLY TEN YEARS! I could not believe the result, so I went to the Department of Energy web site quick stats page, and confirmed the result - 10.4 years. More interesting still is that ALL the world’s oil is projected to run out in 56 years (dividing the sum of all reserves by the sum of all production). Now, it won’t actually play out that way, because the price will go up dramatically at the tail end of production, extending it it out quite a ways, as well as bringing on-line less profitable means of production - but it is that price rise that we consumers are going to care about most. There is no doubt that well before 56 years arrive we will see quite dramatic economic effects. I don’t need to tell you how jittery the stock market gets at the least hint of energy price increases.
With further research on the internet I uncovered a reasonably unbiased 1999 report of world oil supplies as they pertain to the state of Hawaii. In this report for the state of Hawaii you will find that even at the time of writing several years ago world oil production (so-called cheap conventional oil) was essentially at its peak. It doesn’t take a degree in economics to realize that whenever production of a finite resource reaches its peak, price increases happen steadily on the decline, if consumption remains steady. We have seen no significant moves to curb consumption, so the conclusion is that from here on out oil prices are going to rise. As a side note, I’d like to mention that Congress declined to pass any laws mandating an increase in fuel efficiency. Shame on Congress.
The plain and simple fact is that we are on the threshold of an energy crisis of unparalleled magnitude. Seen in this light, Bush’s obsession with invading Iraq becomes clear: Iraq is the last great oil field not producing at its potential (because of our embargo, I might add). However, even this immoral and dangerous war will not solve a problem that can only be postponed, and may very well backfire if the Middle East ignites in a vast war brought on by Bush’s greed. I oppose Bush’s war on Iraq.
No one wants to be the one to say that the party’s over. Least of all, no politician. However, I believe that the American people cannot continue to ignore the twin facts that cheap conventional oil is finite, and primarily under the control of volatile and undemocratic nations. We cannot continue to live far from work, drive single-passenger cars daily, underfund public transportation, not promote alternative renewable energies, and essentially live in a dream world any longer. I look to you to provide leadership on this crucial issue, a core issue that touches on so many others: foreign policy (no war for oil!), economy, transportation, livability issues, and many more.
Sincerely,
Kurt